£1 = € 1.20

[cereza]

France downgraded by S&P along with Austria - more to come
Euro back down towards 1-21.
Still expect 1-25 before 1-15

[HampshireRich]

France downgraded by S&P along with Austria - more to come
Euro back down towards 1-21.
Still expect 1-25 before 1-15

Maybe 1.30 - for all of us who have kept the faith

[EMM]

Who Knows , its anyones guess. The $ continues to rise and the £ is falling against it.

It is all about news from the Eurozone nothing to do with Sterling.

[HampshireRich]

Who Knows , its anyones guess. The $ continues to rise and the £ is falling against it.

It is all about news from the Eurozone nothing to do with Sterling.

I think we all know it's a crazy situation at the moment.

What I would like to know what it really means to the Portuguese - would a weaker Euro help them out in any way or just help out the tourist areas?

I can't see how it would help with debts/loans etc but have to admit I cannot really work out what it would mean.

[EMM]

Portugal is like the UK it has a very small manufacturing base so cannot really benefit from any export gain.
As virtually all commodities are $ priced then inflation will increase as fuel etc will rise in price.
There should be some tourism gain but do not get too excited .
Those outside of the Eurozone with cash could pick up some property bargains.
Bank lending may fall even further. and as Portugal will have to pay a higher interest rate on loans more government cuts and higher taxes could follow.

" devaluation " is really only good news when you have something that the rest of the world wants

What is really needed is stability because from this will come a rise in confidence.

[laserblazer]

Your glass is always half empty EMM! Luckily, there are positive thinkers in the UK who keep our economy going. Britain exports over twice as much as Portugal and a big chunk of that goes to the USA, whereas almost all of Portugal's exports go to EU countries. Our exports in the nuclear industry account for almost as much as Portugal's total. Export of cars from the UK is half of Portugal's total export market and exports to every non EU country have increased over the past 12 months.

[cereza]

It is all about news from the Eurozone nothing to do with Sterling.

Rubbish !! If it was nothing to do with sterling we would still be at 1-15 !
Sterlng is seen as a safer haven than the Euro because it has a fairly stable government which is sticking to an acceptable and realistic plan which they are expected to see through.

[EMM]

Your glass is always half empty EMM! Luckily, there are positive thinkers in the UK who keep our economy going. Britain exports over twice as much as Portugal and a big chunk of that goes to the USA, whereas almost all of Portugal's exports go to EU countries. Our exports in the nuclear industry account for almost as much as Portugal's total. Export of cars from the UK is half of Portugal's total export market and exports to every non EU country have increased over the past 12 months.

I hope you are right, I hope that UK unemployment does not continue to rise, I hope that industrial production also rises ( it fell last month ) I hope the the UK construction sector recovers.

The western economies are in the ***** relying on demand from the far east, What is needed are policies that will rebuild domestic demand NOT fueled as in the past by imports.


CEREZA, Why has the £ fallen to a 9 month low against the dollar, it is because that the UK economy is seen as continuing in the doldrums for some time yet maybe 2-3 years. The only difference at the moment is that the wider Eurozone is seen to be in deeper trouble.
The £ will fall if confidence returns to the Euro.

The rise in £ versus the Euro is more than offset in Portugal by the rise in taxes and energy costs

[biffa]

I know we are mostly interested on €/£ but the USD/€ is interesting. It is around 1€ = USD1,27 but many forecasters see us nearing 1 = 1,24. Those same forecasters view that as a "watershed rate" and the USD reaching parity with the €. Come on experts! Where will that affect the £?

Maybe we get jumbos of yankees flying in and a McD's in Cvo ?

[EMM]

In the current market the £ will follow the Euro down although not as dramatically. , we are already seeing the effects in the UK with fuel prices rising at the pumps.
Our local supermarkets up 2p ltr since christmas.

A falling E/$ will see similar increases in Portugal.

[EMM]

Plus " Great News for the German premium car manufacturers " who will sell even more to the states and far east.

[biffa]

On the subject of petrol and supporting local business - don't drive to Pão da Açucar for your gas - buy it from CEPSA!

I admit to a vested interest (like many UK MP's don't!)

[laserblazer]

On the subject of petrol and supporting local business - don't drive to Pão da Açucar for your gas - buy it from CEPSA!

I admit to a vested interest (like many UK MP's don't!)

Why?

[cereza]

CEREZA, Why has the £ fallen to a 9 month low against the dollar, it is because that the UK economy is seen as continuing in the doldrums for some time yet maybe 2-3 years. The only difference at the moment is that the wider Eurozone is seen to be in deeper trouble.
The £ will fall if confidence returns to the Euro.

Cable has fallen because the USDollar is one of the only mediums for liquidity on a large scale which has attracted buying. Despite a few good bits of news recently the USA economy isn't that great, their deficit is vast and their unemployment rates are as bad as ours. I expect the dollar strength to continue against all currencies to varying degrees but more so against the Euro than Sterling.
Bond markets see the UK as a safer haven than the Eurozone because we have our own currency and a lender of last resort in the BOE which is why our 10 year rates are so low and why Sterling has improved versus the Euro. The return of confidence to the Euro will take some extremely difficult and drastic action which is probably impossible anyway.
Sterling would no doubt be affected by the Euros demise but to say that its current strength against the Euro is nothing to do with the UK government's stance is a misapprehension.

[biffa]

Cereza - why what?