Inflow v Outflow Conundrum

[shanagarry]

You may have noticed a recent trend in the English speaking press (The News and The Resident) as well as the occasional mention on here suggesting that large numbers of people are leaving Portugal to return to their land of origin - predominantly the UK. Some I've read appear to express a degree of delight at the suggestion of an exodus - hmnnn!

As a recent permanent arrival I am confused by this suggestion - not because I am bothered that I have arrived in a place that 'everybody' is leaving - more because I would like to know who it is that is keeping count and how they are going about it. When we first came to Carvoeiro in 1982, we were smitten by the ambience and quaint nature of the place - so much so that every holiday and long break for the following 5 years was taken here - we couldn't get enough of the place. We decided all those years ago that we would one day make this our home and started the long process to buy property and familiarise ourselves with the Portuguese way of life, the people and adapting to the climate. At no time did we imagine it possible to make a living here and what was also apparent was the unwillingness of the Portuguese state to give 'handouts' in the way the UK does.

I made an acquaintance here a few years ago, a person who had moved from the UK with his family intending to settle. He did not have a profession or any particular skill-set other then the willingness to work. I spoke to him in February this year when he told me he was quitting Portugal and returning to the UK. His reasons were the low pay, bureaucracy and the schools were not as good as those in the UK. I quizzed him as to how he was going to rectify all that by going to a country he had left 9 years ago. He said he would 'sign-on' and live off benefits while he looked around as well as getting support from family. I was astounded at this approach and while I know the UK is renowned for its 'handout' culture - I never imagined anybody would deliberately set out to take advantage to that extent. Call me naive - but that, in my opinion, is blatant abuse of the system and I told him so. Strangely enough he agreed with me but said he had no alternative.

Anyway, back to the main topic - this family may be a statistic in the counting of those leaving but who is counting those coming in? When we arrived in Santander in late June we drove, unchecked, to Portugal across an unmanned frontier which suggests nobody knows we are here. We have not undergone any official processing as we already have all the utilities accounts that we held for the past 17 years. If we leave tomorrow we are neither an arrival or a departure - how many more of us are there?

The removal company that moved us here told us that for every one family they take back to the UK - they bring 5 to Portugal and 3 to Spain. I know of 2 other families who have recently arrived from the UK and neither have they gone through any formal processing.

The matter becomes even more confusing when you try and understand the process a British ex-Portuguese resident has to undergo when they arrive back in the UK having been away for 5 or more years and are still of a working age and need to:

* Get a job
* Get a home/house
* Get their children into schools (if appropriate)
* Get credit

Given the parlous state of the UK economy (and others) - how is such a person/family going to get by? If there are jobs - they will not be well paid - so no change from Portugal. Housing and schools are not easily accessible - so what happens then? I know the cynics and even the do-gooders will take the view that being British they are entitled to state handouts because they 'contributed' at some stage in their lives. A comparison will be made between Romanian gypsies being given houses etc - so its OK. If only life in the modern world was that straightforward.

The primary purposes for me writing this was to attempt to understand the logic for a British person leaving Portugal in the hope of finding a 'better' life in the UK and to try and fathom out the method used to compile the statistics that make the claims the media report. I suspect I know the answer to returning to the UK - you get more by being unemployed than you do if you work (in some professions) - something Mr Cameron is working to curtail.

Trying to put a figure on the Inflow v the Outflow is to my mind, guesswork and clearly justifies a job in some Government department which brings to mind the old Mark Twain adage - lies, damn lies and statistics

[blue]

I suppose they only know of those of us who have taken official residencia but we know many who haven't & work cash in hand & live in digs. As for the leaving, the people we know who have decided to go back are either people with children going into senior schools, their parents don't think their children will get a good enough education in Portugal, or older people who are missing children & grandchildren or are worried about their health. Lots of the unofficial people come over & scout around for what work they can get for a year or two then disappear. We will have been here five years in November, time has passed so quickly it feels like five minutes. Can't imagine going back to live in the UK & I don't think it's ever likely to happen, but who knows what the future holds.

[widge]

[quote][You may have noticed a recent trend in the English speaking press (The News and The Resident) as well as the occasional mention on here suggesting that large numbers of people are leaving Portugal to return to their land of origin - predominantly the UK. /quote]

No I hadn't and frankly you shouldn't believe everything you read in the press, never mind the forum.

I suspect they haven't got a clue and who cares anyway?

[shanagarry]

who cares anyway

Somebody does enough to want to publicise the matter - why? Maybe somebody who has taken that 'leap' could answer

[EMM]

Both news outlets search for headlines that aould appeal to expats and more often than not they put a negative slant on events.

Have a significant number of brtits left in the last 3 years, , yes. Were they all committed to a life in Portugal, I think not.
Some would have moved back because they had not done enough research and found out quickly that Portugal is not the UK ins the sun.
Some would have moved for family /career reasons.
Some simply ran out of money as they moved thinking that well paid jobs were available.

Those we know who have not stayed tend to be in the lack of research, lack of income catergory and should probably not left the UK in the first place.

[shanagarry]

That's a well balanced assessment

[steve]

The other category I have seen is people who want the benefit of free state health care in old age including prescribed drugs and the comfort of a system that they feel familiar with. In the cases I am aware of this has been a sensible decision.

[e-richard]

I have no idea on the reasons or motivations for inflow or outflow, but I can talk to the measurement of the numbers.

Reasonably good estimates can be arrived at using "desk research" which entails searching thru databases of bank accounts, tax records, etc.
This, of course is not available to us mortals nor to the journalists of which you speak.

In addition to the desk research, one can carry out random surveys of a representative sample of foreigners and, if the sample is scientifically calculated and truly representative then one can make assumptions of the gross numbers with a small margin for error.

Unfortunately, proper representative sample surveys cost many thousands to conduct.

So one can do "straw polls".
This entails sitting at the bar in Sullys for about a week and asking a few questions of each and every non-Portuguese visitor. This will give an assumption which grossed up will give an answer with a huge margin of error, but, of course, will probably make a great story for the local press.

Now, I certainly don't want to accuse any named publication of such malarky. For all I know they could be doing their "research" at Mungos !

[shanagarry]

people who want the benefit of free state health care in old age including prescribed drugs

Steve, interesting point given that the people fitting that category will (in the main) have left the UK many years prior and are probably Portuguese residents. Would I be right in 'assuming' that they can walk back into a system they left many years earlier and get all the benefits of a permanent UK resident?

That being the case it's not too difficult to see why Calais is one huge waiting room full of undeserving cases looking for a free 'lunch' - where else in Europe can that happen

[steve]

Yes you are righ. Although unlike the people waiting at Calais, UK residents who retired here will have paid their dues to the UK NHS through NI contributions and taxation. On the other hand we are all Europeans now and benefits are equalised under reciprocal arrangements- hence Portuguese NHS treatment available to UK citizens who are resident but have never paid a centimo into the Portuguese system.

[shanagarry]

Steve

I wasn't decrying the entitlement for fully paid up UK/Portuguese residents - I was questioning the accessibility aspect that appears to apply here when we need to register. I get the impression there are a few 'obstacles' to be overcome - whereas in the UK, non-residents just turn up at an A&E Department and get instant attention

[sam]

I have come across a number of people over the years who are British, but have spent their working lives abroad, often not even in Europe. Many come back and are genuinely surprised and pleased at the benefits etc that they can receive. Unfortunately, others come back and seem to think that this country owes them something, despite them having contributed little or nothing to it over their lifetime. Worse still, these are usually the ones with the the cheek to rant about 'coloured' people and 'scroungers' getting housing and benefits that they think they should be getting.