southern comfort?

[martin]

from todays telegraph - it does not make good reading ref portugal economics

see here

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... ssion.html

[shanagarry]

Interesting - not just for Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland - but for the rest of us who will have to find a way to prop them up. With the Germans seriously considering exiting the Euro - what will the remaining 'stronger' countries do to protect their positions?

I was in Richmond in Surrey three weeks ago on a Wednesday night and could not move for revellers - all spending money as if there is no recession.

I was in Ireland last week and saw no indication of a recession - bars in and around Cork City were heaving on the three nights I was there.

Contrast that to last night when we left the Lagoa Auditorium at 10.20pm and drove back to Carvoeiro to practically empty streets, a lot of closed bars and a line of taxis waiting for non-existent clients.

Which of these three scenarios is reality? We all know that the UK public sector is top-heavy after the years of Blair/Brown mis-management and that money has been wasted on a huge scale - as it has in some other European states. We are told that the banks are to blame for creating the 'money' for all of us to borrow and live beyond our means - with little or no hope of it ever being repaid. Somewhere amongst all this there is a conundrum because (my opinion) there doesn't appear to be too many going without. I watched the Ryder Cup last week and despite tickets costing upwards of £50 per day there was no shortage of takers - car sales in the the EU are 3% up on where they were last year - Sainsbury and Tesco are reporting enormous profits (I know we all have to eat - but if things are as bad as we are being told - go to LIDL or ALDI). I'm baffled.

In my own case I have a Barclaycard that I seldom use. Last week I got an unsolicited letter increasing my credit limit by £5,000. My balance was in two figures (I had bought two books at Gatwick and did not have any Sterling so paid with the card) and my credit limit was already in 5 figures.

Either the media are (as they always tend to do) over-egging this whole recession thing and if so why? or do others know something the rest of us don't

[EMM]

It is a very mixed picture, UK car sales down year on year fell again in september.

But much of whats left of UK manufacturing is doing well supplying UK demand.

THe declining $ is helping to reduce ( a little ) the substantial rise in commodity prices in both the UK and Euro zone.

I was talking to a Belgian supplier this morning and they are already starting to see signs of a slow down ( within the Eurozone ).
Some of this they put down to the unrealistically high value of the Euro restricting exports.

It may well take significant fall in economic activity in the Euro North to act as the catylist that will bring about the necessary re struture of the Eurozone.

[mac]

I don't understand this EMM. We're looking for a new small car and have looked at 2 manufacturers. Both of them, we'd have to wait 4/5 months for the car. They're THAT busy? Also, when we bought our Land Rover last year, we actually bought the ex demo as there was an 8 month wait for a new one!

[shanagarry]

Mac

I operate in the vehicle leasing industry and have to advise clients on a regular basis that that the lead time for their 'new' car will be at least 8-12 weeks. This has nothing to do with 'busyness' and everything to do with protecting the investment people have made in their new cars.

In the days of plenty cars were pumped out of plants at a phenomenal rate - with one objective in mind - market share. When times became difficult (GM, Ford, Rover et al) hit the buffers - the money men took over from the marketing people. Market share was no longer the mantra they were judged by - the 'dirty' word PROFIT became the by word for success measurement.We read about the banks and the problems they have created by reckless lending policies - what we don't read about is the contingent liability they have for Europe's company cars - which depends on the used car market holding up its values.

In those days many car manufacturers owned car rental and car leasing businesses and used them as dumping grounds in their pursuit of market share glory. Many of you will remember the deals that were available in those days where 'new' cars were being sold at ridiculous prices and had a mere 10 miles on the clock. To put it mildly - that pissed-off the people who went to a dealer and paid a reasonable price for his/her new car only to find that it was now worth 30% of its original value after such a short period of time. In addition car rental companies were given extraordinary terms including buy-backs which eventually resulted in the used car market being flooded with a lot of same manufacturer/model cars - having the effect of diminishing the value of the general public's car values. The effect is being felt very strongly in the rental car industry as is experienced here in The Algarve at the height of summer. Car rental companies cannot afford to hold large inventories of cars that will stand idle for more months than they are being utilised - so they reduce their fleet size to match the average demand and maximise their profitability.

Anyway - those days have now gone as have large discounts and a degree of common sense prevails - cars are not being made to stand in fields for years on end - they are being made to 'order' and not that many are being made anymore.In the main I am referring to the quality European manufacturers - there is still a plethora of the Asian manufacturers mass-manufacturing and there are deals to be done with these marques. There is nothing wrong with these cars but they do not have the same appeal as BMW, Merc, Land Rover etc and will always struggle against the major Europeans.

So when you are told by your dealer that your new car is going to take 8-12 weeks to arrive - be thankful - you are making a sensible buying decision

[mac]

Thank you Shanagarry, that all made sense. I think we've narrowed it down to either the Ford Ka or the Volkswagen Fox. It's only to do short journeys and round about. No long journeys or lots of use. There's a very good deal on a Renault Clio at the moment, £3,700 off the new price! But that model does mean you pay road tax and the smaller cars you don't so that's what we're leaning towards.

[R.Wethereyet]

Shanagarry.

How do manage to live here and run a car leasing business in the UK!!!

I was lucky to get 2 weeks away when I was in the industry, and still had my mobile stuck to my ear for the duration.

What's the name of your company, maybe we crossed paths when I was in the UK.