Greece and Portugal in the red

[EMM]

The UK has very little if anything to feel superior about ( £ down again today ) as our problems are very similar.

It is true that Portuguese companies are not as productive as they should be, not because of lack of investment or training but in the case of those I deal with a reluctance to admit that they could learn from others.

( you can see examples of this in the article )

[R.Wethereyet]

The expectancy from the Portuguese government that it can ride the storm and collect enough money from taxes to clear it's deficit in the next few years are blinkered, or worse, they actually believe in their own propoganda put out through the press and media.

The indiginous population are leaving the country on mass, emigration is at it's highest since the revolution, because Portugal has one of the lowest incomes per head in Europe and one of the highest unemployment rates. Even immigrants from their former colonies like Angola and Mozambique, who at one time were arriving in their thousands are now re-patriating because their own countries can now offer better opportunities for work and income.

Similarly, the new enlarged Euro region, is taking away many thousands of Eastern Europeans who arrived here during Portugal's boom time created by the billions in EU grants, but who can now also return to their own countries who are benefitting from the 'New EU' grants.

Where the money into the government coffers will come from nobody knows, the massive income generated by taxes on property, together with millions generated from tourism, one of its' major revenue streams, are both in serious decline, and with very little to export and no outward new investment to create new income/tax, how on earth do they expect to balance the books.

Where or when this crisis will end, who knows, but many who live here are seriously concerned for the future.

[Bristle Si]

The UK has very little if anything to feel superior about ( £ down again today ) as our problems are very similar.

It is true that Portuguese companies are not as productive as they should be, not because of lack of investment or training but in the case of those I deal with a reluctance to admit that they could learn from others.

( you can see examples of this in the article )

EMM, you do make me laugh sometimes - you will defend everything about Portugal at all costs.

I love it for its countryside, the friendly people, it's a great place to holiday and i'm sure to live, but economically it's in turmoil. To be ranked alongside the likes of Greece and Spain is not an enviable position.

I'm afraid it's economy is being strangled by the inflexibility of the Eurozone. It's not a Germany or France; it's a 'third tier' economy in the Eurozone and not having its own currency like the Escudo is causing it problems. It needs the flexibility that comes with having its own currency.
The £ has basically been devalued deliberately to try and engineer an export led recovery - Portugal does not have that mechanism to use.

Yes, we have our problems, but we have a far greater chance of recovery than Portugal.

[EMM]

You obviously did not read or understand my reply.

I did NOT defend Portugal I just said that the UK,s Problems are not much less,

If you follow the financial markets and read the reputable analysts you will see how much risk they believe there is in the UK economy.
Sterling continues to fall ( down again this morning) and the BOE would like it to fall further.

The UK would NOT qualify for EUROZONE membership because of our financial state and if we were in we would now be listed along with Portugal, Italy Greece and Spain.

As for the myth of a UK export led recovery. UK exports fell by 9.5% in 2009.
As one commentator said this morning the difference between Germany and those countries in trouble is that Germany still makes products that the rest of the world wannts to buy.
A low currencey is meaningless unless you have a manufacturing base to take advantage of it.

[Polli62]

Todays Resident regarding crisis in Portugal
http://www.algarveresident.com/story.asp?XID=34985

[Bristle Si]

You obviously did not read or understand my reply.

I did NOT defend Portugal I just said that the UK,s Problems are not much less,

If you follow the financial markets and read the reputable analysts you will see how much risk they believe there is in the UK economy.
Sterling continues to fall ( down again this morning) and the BOE would like it to fall further.

The UK would NOT qualify for EUROZONE membership because of our financial state and if we were in we would now be listed along with Portugal, Italy Greece and Spain.

As for the myth of a UK export led recovery. UK exports fell by 9.5% in 2009.
As one commentator said this morning the difference between Germany and those countries in trouble is that Germany still makes products that the rest of the world wannts to buy.
A low currencey is meaningless unless you have a manufacturing base to take advantage of it.

"If you follow the financial markets" - EMM, i am a market analyst by day - it's my job!

Thanks to the current Socialist govt in the UK we are also in the mire. It's relied almost solely on the service industry and consumer spending for its 'growth' figures since coming to power in 1997. Flawed policy.
By the way, the % of GDP attributed to manufacturing in the UK fell by a larger % during this Labour govt than it did under the Tories previously. Labour also equals financial crisis at some point in its term of govt.

[EMM]

There is one thing you can be sure of, take any 3 so called financial experts, they will come with at least 5 opinions all of them wrong.

As for your comment about the decline of UK manufacturing in actual capacity and numbers employed the decline under the Tories was far more substantial and dramatic. Remember over3 million umemployed or is that just another myth ?
You should also consider that the % of the population available for work was smaller then as we did not have the influx of foreign workers seen in recent years.

One thing we can agree on just as in the early 90,s we are in the **** and none of our so caled political leaders of any political persuasion has a clue how to get us out of it.
As in the 90,s it will take a world economic recovery to make us feel that things have got better ( until the next time ).

[Bristle Si]

If we break down GDP contributions as percentages Services makes up the majority at over 75% of the GDP contribution to the UK economy (and up until the credit crunch circa 40% of GDP contribution were from Financial Services alone). Manufacturing as an industry sector currently supports just 13% of the UK GDP (as a comparison the USA is circa 19% and Germany is circa 23%) and the actual amount is around £150 Billion.

Labour has presided over a complete imbalance in terms of industry sectors contributing to the UK GDP - very worrying. More figures to follow later about the decline under the Socialists.

[EMM]

It you want to present a balanced and reasoned arguement , give us the figures for the time under the Tories as well !!.

Maybe then you will be taken seriously.

Just a little example.

In the early seventies in the UK there were 12 plants producing an aluminium product, employing appox 10,000.
By the mid nineties this had declined by over 50% and the numbers employed by 70%.
UK market share went from 90% to around 50%. and continues to decline ( exports almost zero )
Add coal , Iron Steel, etc etc.
This substantial decline did not take place under the current goverment ( who I do not support ).
In the EUROZONE the growth and investment has been dramatic increasing by over 200% while in the UK decline continues.

[Bristle Si]

It you want to present a balanced and reasoned arguement , give us the figures for the time under the Tories as well !!.

Maybe then you will be taken seriously.

Just a little example.

In the early seventies in the UK there were 12 plants producing an aluminium product, employing appox 10,000.
By the mid nineties this had declined by over 50% and the numbers employed by 70%.
UK market share went from 90% to around 50%. and continues to decline ( exports almost zero )
Add coal , Iron Steel, etc etc.
This substantial decline did not take place under the current goverment ( who I do not support ).
In the EUROZONE the growth and investment has been dramatic increasing by over 200% while in the UK decline continues.

% of GDP in manufacturing in the UK in 1997 when the Tories lost power was 27%, by 2004 down to 20%, latest figures as i alluded to in previous post around 13%. So not an enviable record by the Labour govt since 97. (i will try to find figs from the 80s, but if anyone's been on the ONS website it's not the easiest one to trawl through!).
"Workforce jobs by industry" sources that in June 1979 (1 month after Thatch took power) there were 7.1m manufacturing jobs out of a total workforce of 27.3m, approx 26% of workforce.
By Mar 1997 there wwre 4.5m manufacturing jobs in the UK, approx 16% of workforce and in Sept 09 there were 2.8m manufacturing jobs in the UK, out of totalworkforce of almost 31m, about 10% of the workforce. The decline has continued under Labour. Source: ONS website.

Regards and have a great weekend

[EMM]

So Bris who shut down the coal mines, steel works, put over 3million on the dole.
Under which goverment did companies like M&S transfer the bulk of their clothing manufacture abroad putting thousands on the dole.

Financial analysts are responsible for much of the current ills in our economy as they have little if any experience of the real world, play with figures to make them add up to what they want and then make short term decisions based on them.

We only have to look at the Banks and how they have performed to see that.
Government may have been responsible for lack of rules but to put all the blame on them is like saying that the victim of a pickpocket is responsible for being robbed just because he was not wearing a money belt.

The pickpocket ( banker ) is still responsible for the theft but sadly goes unpunished.