We all got very excited a few months ago when the £ looked to be heading for E1.25 plus and some forcast the iminent demise of the the Euro.

This morning the £ is worth around E1.185 ( commercial rate ) having fallen to a 2 month low.

* B****R * should have bought more in early summer.

EMM wrote:* B****R * should have bought more in early summer.

But if it had gone the other way, you'd have been cursing for buying too early

If anyone out there knows of a foolproof way to predict currency movements, then please do not post here and tell the world, just PM me, and I'll pay you a commission

You've more chance of predicitng the outcome of an international cricket match

use the current weakness as a buying opportunity, if gbp gets close to 1.15 fill ur boots

Nod do you mean buy Sterling or Euros. if you think that the £ is going to fall further buy Euros if you need them now.

If you want sterling wait for it to fall further.

Sterlings decline continues E1.1704. Doubts about the state of the UK economy are growing and it is thought that the BOE will have to step in again with more quantative easing.

At least we had a reasonable exchange rate over the summer.

Currecny speculation is exactly that, speculation. The £ is gaining ground against the $ but falling against the Euro. Like I said earlier, you've more chance of prediciting the outcome of an International cricket match, unless you're involved in circles big enough to influence matters by buying or selling vast amounts of currency.

This is not speculation but the markets view of the UK,s finances.
Sterlings movements in recent years have had a dramatic negative effect on the tourist income of countries like Portugal, The incomes of expats and the construction and property markets in Portugal.

The rise in sterlings overall value in the summer was seen as a return of confidence, its current value is a reflection of a decline in confidence.

Its current state is contrary to many of the views of economists and of those who thought that it was the Euro that had problems.

The Euro has also improved against the dollar.

EMM wrote:This is not speculation but the markets view of the UK,s finances.
Sterlings movements in recent years have had a dramatic negative effect on the tourist income of countries like Portugal, The incomes of expats and the construction and property markets in Portugal.

The rise in sterlings overall value in the summer was seen as a return of confidence, its current value is a reflection of a decline in confidence.

Its current state is contrary to many of the views of economists and of those who thought that it was the Euro that had problems.

The Euro has also improved against the dollar.

The trend over the last 6 months (from March) is the pound has gained against both dollar and Euro - what happens over a few days or couple of weeks is not that relevant as there are always ups and downs.

Probably a combination of both the UK and Eurozone outlooks as to why the £ is on the slide.

The finances issue is not such a big thing for the UK at the mo as the world's leading credit agencies are viewing the coalition's efforts, so far, as stabilising this part of the UK's economic and fiscal future direction. They see the govt has taken decisive action.
However, recent UK growth forecasts have been downgraded so this is likely to lead to a continued policy of very low interest rates, despite inflation still threatening to take off. A very difficult balancing act for the BofE going forward.
As for the Eurozone, there's some restored confidence in the major Eurozone economies, but also the US has come under scrutiny again which results in a weaker dollar, as opposed to a stronder Euro.
All very much 'up in the air' again as to whether any recovery is sustainable - uncertain times and one for all to watch and not expect too much in terms of investment (incl. property and second propreties abroad) for the next 10 years.
Portugal and the Algarve, plus all the other major home-owning countries will continue to see flat or falling prices in my view for a number of years yet - not such a bad thing for those wanting to join the property owning masses for the first time. Owning a house is not all about people making money on second home ownership!

HampshireRich wrote:

EMM wrote:This is not speculation but the markets view of the UK,s finances.
Sterlings movements in recent years have had a dramatic negative effect on the tourist income of countries like Portugal, The incomes of expats and the construction and property markets in Portugal.

The rise in sterlings overall value in the summer was seen as a return of confidence, its current value is a reflection of a decline in confidence.

Its current state is contrary to many of the views of economists and of those who thought that it was the Euro that had problems.

The Euro has also improved against the dollar.

The trend over the last 6 months (from March) is the pound has gained against both dollar and Euro - what happens over a few days or couple of weeks is not that relevant as there are always ups and downs.

Do you remember the fall from E1.40 to E1.06 in less than 12 months. Now that was a down and did have a degree of relevance to all of us who live or visit Portugal and other Eurozone countries.
There is no doubt that the BOE would not be unhappy to see the £ decline further.

EMM wrote:

HampshireRich wrote:

EMM wrote:This is not speculation but the markets view of the UK,s finances.
Sterlings movements in recent years have had a dramatic negative effect on the tourist income of countries like Portugal, The incomes of expats and the construction and property markets in Portugal.

The rise in sterlings overall value in the summer was seen as a return of confidence, its current value is a reflection of a decline in confidence.

Its current state is contrary to many of the views of economists and of those who thought that it was the Euro that had problems.

The Euro has also improved against the dollar.

The trend over the last 6 months (from March) is the pound has gained against both dollar and Euro - what happens over a few days or couple of weeks is not that relevant as there are always ups and downs.

Do you remember the fall from E1.40 to E1.06 in less than 12 months. Now that was a down and did have a degree of relevance to all of us who live or visit Portugal and other Eurozone countries.
There is no doubt that the BOE would not be unhappy to see the £ decline further.

I think the BOE is quite relaxed about inflation at around 3 to 5% wipes out your debts quicker and probably got quite concerned when the pound strengthened recently. Its a ploy the UK plus many others have used in the past when in trouble a weak currency plus a bit of inflation is normally what the doctor ordered. This time however did very little for a boost to exports and as the borrowing figures from yesterday indicate did very little period. Its tough for nearly all western economies and it still looks like a race to the bottom.

Gary

EMM wrote:Nod do you mean buy Sterling or Euros. if you think that the £ is going to fall further buy Euros if you need them now.

If you want sterling wait for it to fall further.

yes Emm, use current weakness to buy GBP with an entry level around 1.1500...GBP is in a broad uptrend vs. euro since Jan '09 and GBP can go as low as 1.1200 without breaking out of this uptrend...considering what's happening in euro area re banking crisis, sovereign debt etc. I reckon current GBP weakness is temporary.

THe difference is we in the UK need to buy euros not sterling. Sterlings weakness is very bad news. A return to E1.12 would be a real setback for those who rely on the UK tourist market or UK property buyers.
As the Irish and Greeks had no problems selling their latest issue of goverment bonds the theory of continuing Euro weakness is somewhat optimistic.

EMM wrote:THe difference is we in the UK need to buy euros not sterling. Sterlings weakness is very bad news. A return to E1.12 would be a real setback for those who rely on the UK tourist market or UK property buyers.
As the Irish and Greeks had no problems selling their latest issue of goverment bonds the theory of continuing Euro weakness is somewhat optimistic.

Tough on you guys! All property markets in Europe need a big slump to re-balance their economies, so i couldn't give a flying doo-daa if the Algarve or any other country/area sees a 50% fall! In the UK, for example, a property value slump would benefit those 1st timers looking to get on the ladder - and that would be fab.

A weak £ is not all bad in overall economic terms (albeit not too weak because that would indicate continued and very long term problems with UK economy). You are obviously looking at it from a 2nd-property owning perspective.

On a personal level i don't like a weak £ compared to euro because it affects my spending power when on hols, but i'm afraid there are more important concerns for the UK, its people and its economy than 2nd home owners on the Algarve!